This time, the whole world is watching, what else can the Federal Reserve say?

Is the dollar rate cut finally coming?

On July 5th, the U.S. Department of Labor released the non-farm employment and unemployment rate data for June, causing a stir in the market.

Some even optimistically believe that a rate cut in September is a sure thing, is this true?

On July 5th local time, the U.S. Department of Labor announced the non-farm employment data for June.

The data showed that the U.S. added 206,000 non-farm jobs in June, higher than the expected 190,000.

Some people were dumbfounded by this data, leaving us a message saying that the U.S. employment is still very strong, where is the economic recession?

Those who are pessimistic about the U.S., come out and take a few steps.

Let's take a few steps to show you, otherwise, some people don't even look at the data completely.

Let's look at a few more data points.

1.

The non-farm employment numbers for May and April were revised down from 272,000 and 165,000 to 218,000 and 108,000, respectively.

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In just these two months, the total revision was as high as 111,000 people.

Over the past year, the Biden administration has almost every month revised down the non-farm employment numbers, with a cumulative revision exceeding 1 million people.

So some experts say that the non-farm employment data released by the U.S. this time in June is absolutely fabricated, and it's obvious at a glance.

To what extent has the Biden administration embellished economic data for the election?

2.

Since 2023, the U.S. has seen a decrease of 1.6 million full-time jobs and an increase of 1.8 million part-time jobs.

The data released this time shows that in June, all net employment growth was part-time, with full-time jobs decreasing by another 30,000 that month, while part-time jobs increased by 50,000.

Most of the new jobs added that month came from the government sector, with as many as 70,000, higher than the average monthly increase of 49,000 jobs over the past 12 months.

How much water is there in this data?

It's obvious.

Another particularly noteworthy data point is that temporary employment decreased by 49,000 people in one month, and has decreased by 515,000 people since peaking in March 2022.

This indicates that not only are all the increases part-time jobs, but also the government sector is spending money to hire people.

The government hires people this month, fires them after a while, and then hires again, playing a cycle game.

In addition, in times of economic uncertainty, many companies first lay off employees, reduce full-time staff, and then hire temporary workers, which is a characteristic operation of economic recession.

Do you still not believe that the U.S. economy has entered a recession?

Let's look at another symbolic data point.

3.

The U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, the highest in the past 32 months.

This data doesn't seem very eye-catching, only 0.1 percentage points higher than last month.

However, if you know that this data has been rising for several months, and this 0.1 percentage point has already triggered the Sum rule, you won't take it lightly.

The meaning of the Sum rule is that when the 3-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate minus the low point of the previous year's unemployment rate exceeds 0.5%, it indicates that the U.S. has entered the early stage of economic recession.

In the history of the United States, once the Sum rule is triggered, it means that the economy is in the early stage of recession, and the Sum rule has high accuracy, so this can be regarded as a symbolic data that the U.S. economy has entered a recession.

Based on the above three aspects of data, we can see very clearly that the U.S. job market is deteriorating comprehensively, relying on the government to hire a large number of temporary workers to support a breath.

However, how long do you think this method can last?

The Biden administration may already have an answer to this question.

The answer of the Biden administration is likely to be another 4 months, as long as it can support the election.

At the same time, the CPI data for June is expected to be released next week.

If this data is also declining, or even drops below 3%, then the Federal Reserve may have nothing more to say.

We can say that the dollar rate cut is now on the edge of a cliff.

However, what we don't know is whether the economic data released now is that Americans are honest, or some forces are forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates?

If it's the former, it means that the U.S. economy is still very entangled, and there may be some strength left, but it's already a desperate struggle.

If it's the latter, it's very bad, and the economic data in the next few months will continue to deteriorate, and the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to cope.

In addition, it's obvious that the current situation, the Federal Reserve does not dare to cut interest rates easily.

A few days ago, Powell said in person that the current risk of cutting interest rates is very high.

He said that inflation is very likely to rebound, but he did not say what the big capitalists behind the scenes think.

So, in September, will the dollar really cut interest rates?

We have said many times that not cutting interest rates or even raising interest rates again is in line with the interests of the big capitalists behind the Federal Reserve.

They will not yield easily, and they will not care about the life and death of the U.S. economy and ordinary people.

They are too superstitious about the power of the dollar and the so-called self-healing ability of the U.S. economy.

Even the Great Depression can survive, and the economic recession is nothing?

However, what they don't understand is that is it the United States itself that repairs it?

Every time it sucks the blood of the world to save the U.S. economy and financial crisis.

So, raising interest rates once more in the third quarter, and then cutting interest rates before the election, is a very possible script.

We don't have to be afraid, the world has been prepared for a long time, even if the U.S. economy and the dollar collapse at the same time, the impact is only temporary.